By Yao Jin
"The overall performance of the auto sector has been improving steadily; many publicly listed companies have published favorable interim performance preview, some even expecting growth of more than 80 percent". According to Xu Yingbo, an analyst of the Research Division of CITIC Securities, Sinomach Automobile reports a growth of 105 percent, and Changan about 180 percent; due to the low base number last year, Pang Da Automobile Trade and BYD also show rapid growths.
According to statistics from Wind Information, there are 57 listed companies in Shenyin & Wanguo Securities' whole vehicle and auto parts category that have published their performance reviews of the first half of 2013. Among these, 4 companies see sustained profit, 14 reporting growth, 15 reporting slight growth, while 5 turning loss from profit, 10 posting slight decrease, 5 posting decrease, 3 posting initial loss, and 1 sustaining loss. On the whole, about two thirds of public auto companies report good news.
As of July 24, 7 public auto companies, including Great Wall Motors, APG, JMC, Pacific Precision Forging, Ankai, Wanfeng Auto Wheels, and Fengfan, had published their interim performance bulletins, all seeing net profit growths to various extents. Great Wall Motors took in revenue of RMB 26.417 billion Yuan in the first half of 2013, increasing by 44.45 percent year on year; net profit attributed to parent company shareholders was RMB 4.088 billion Yuan, growing 73.7 percent year on year, its growth ranking going higher.
The preview shows that FAW Car expects net profit of RMB 580 to 780 million Yuan in the first half of the year, outrunning market expectations; Changan expects net profit of RMB 1.26 to 1.36 billion Yuan in the first half, also better than market expectations. "In various senses, growth of the auto industry in the first half has exceeded expectation and has improved significantly". Chang Lu, an analyst of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, points out that energy-saving subsidy has been maintained at high level, that the expiration effect of stimulus policy has faded, and that the auto industry has restored its normal growth.
Statistics of Haitong Securities research institute show that since the beginning this year (January 1 to July 19, 2013), the passenger car sector has gone up 13.7 percent, the coach and bus sector up 16.14 percent, and the auto parts sector down 5.75 percent, the truck sector 16.46 percent, and the auto service sector down 11.73 percent. The CSI80 Index has dropped 13.18 percent, and the truck sector has been worse than that.
"The performances of different sectors diverge. The passenger car sector and the coach and bus sector outrun the index by 18 and 80 percentages points respectively, the auto parts sector remains basically on par with the index, while the freight car sector is 2 percentage points slower than the index". Chang Lu points out that the fact is apparent disparity has always existed among individual stocks. For example, individual stocks related to new model, SUV and the new energy sector have performed outstandingly, but individual stocks with weak expected performance has performed rather poorly.
"The State Council has mentioned support for environment protection related industries repeatedly in its routine meetings. On the meeting held on July 12, it was proposed that government vehicles and public transports should take the lead to promote the use of new-energy vehicles, and auxiliary facilities should be completed simultaneously". Xu Yingbo said that from this perspective, new-energy car will be the strategic trend of the future development of the industry; taking into accounts factors such as auxiliary facilities, cost, and demonstration effect, new-energy bus and couch are currently the most industrialized sector in the industry; it may be expected that policies promoting new-energy bus and coach and eliminating yellow-label vehicles will be enhanced and implemented. "Promoting new-energy public transports has an apparent effect on improving energy conservation and emission reduction. Effort to implement the policy may be more intense than expected".
Chang Lu also believes that there is still room for energy-saving and new energy policy in the next half of the year, thanks to multiple support elements like the continuation and increasing of energy-saving subsidy policy, the formulation and adjustment of new-energy vehicle subsidy policy, and the gradual progress of infrastructures. "New energy public transports will be the main growth point in the next half and can be expected to receive more official support".